POLITICAL PROCESS, STATE ACTIONS, AND VARIATIONS IN INSURGENT VIOLENCE: EVIDENCE FROM ISRAEL-PALESTINE*

Expanding on the political process approach to the relationship between state actions and violent mobilization, we argue that the state’s structure of political opportunities and threats (or SPOT) informs and is informed by the repressive and conciliatory actions the state employs. We further argue that changes in the state’s SPOT shape its capacity to effectively implement discriminate or indiscriminate repressive and conciliatory actions, with different effects on levels of insurgent violence. Key findings from an analysis of Israeli state actions and Palestinian violent attacks during the first Intifada as a whole, as well as during subperiods representing specific SPOTs, reveal that favorable state SPOT is more likely to be associated with the state’s use of discriminate actions. Moreover, discriminate actions, whether repressive or conciliatory, are more likely to bring about a decrease in insurgent violence, while indiscriminate actions of both types tend to lead to an increase in violence.