Editorial Type:
Article Category: Research Article
| Online Publication Date: 15 Apr 2009
Sliding Doors of Opportunity: Zapatistas and Their Cycle of Protest
Sliding Doors of Opportunity: Zapatistas and Their Cycle of Protest
Page Range: 85 – 106
Using a cross-sectional time-series event-count model, this study analyzes the effects of local, national, and international variables on pro-Zapatista protests across the 111 localities (municipios) of Chiapas over a ten-year period (1994-2003). Protests were more likely to occur in localities with previous protest activity, a closed political system, and a larger presence of the military. Local and national electoral openings, as well as a larger local and national presence of the Zapatistas' presumed political ally, the Partido de la Revolución Democrática (PRD), had a negative relationship with protest activity. Specific openings to the Zapatistas also worked as protest depressants. International attention did not show any significant effect on Zapatista protest activity. However, these institutional and specific openings were only ephemeral opportunities in that they did not translate into substantive concessions for the movement. They appear to have decreased the strength of the Zapatista protest cycle, while the international attention to the movement did not show any significant effect on it.
Almeida, Paul D. 2003. "Opportunity Organizations and Threat-Induced Contention: Protest Waves in Authoritarian Settings." American Journal of Sociology 109(2): 345-400.
Barron, David. 1992. "The Analysis of Count Data: Overdispersion and Autocorrelation." Sociological Methodology 22: 179-220.
Becerra, Ricardo, Pedro Salazar, and José Woldenberg. 2000. La mecánica del cambio político en México: Elecciones, partidos políticos y reformas [The Mechanics of Political Change in Mexico: Elections, Political Parties, and Reforms]. 2nd ed. Mexico City: Cal y Arena.
Benjamin, Thomas. 1996. A Rich Land, a Poor People: Politics and Society in Modern Chiapas. Albuquerque, NM: University of New Mexico Press.
Bob, Clifford. 2002. "Political-Process Theory and Transnational Movements: Dialectics of Protest among Nigeria's Ogoni Minority." Social Problems 49(3): 395-415.
Bob, Clifford. 2005. The Marketing of Rebellion: Insurgents, Media, and International Activism. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Brockett, Charles D. 1991. "The Structure of Political Opportunities and Peasant Mobilization in Central America." Comparative Politics 23(3): 253-74.
Bruhn, Kathleen. 1999. "Antonio Gramsci and the Palabra Verdadera: The Political Discourse of Mexico's Guerrilla Forces." Journal of Interamerican Studies and World Affairs 41(2): 29-55.
Bryk, Anthony S., and Stephen W. Raudenbush. 1992. Hierarchical Linear Models: Applications and Data Analysis Methods. Newbury Park, CA: Sage.
Castells, Manuel. 1997. The Power of Identity. Oxford: Blackwell.
CIEPAC (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas y Políticas de Acción Comunitaria). 2003. Mapas militares [Military maps]. http://www.ciepac.org
Clemens, Elisabeth. 1997. The People's Lobby: Organizational Innovation and the Rise of Interest-Group Politics in the United States, 1890-1925. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
Collier, George A., and Jane F. Collier. 2005. "The Zapatista Rebellion in the Context of Globalization." Journal of Peasant Studies 32(3-4): 450-60.
Collier, George A., and Elizabeth L. Quaratiello. 1994. Basta! Land and the Zapatista Rebellion. Oakland, CA: Institute for Food and Development Policy.
CONAPO (Consejo Nacional de Población). 2003. Índices de marginación [Deprivation Indexes]. http://www.conapo.gob.mx
Costain, Anne N. 1992. Inviting Women's Rebellion: A Political Process Interpretation of the Women's Movement. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Cress, Daniel M., and David A. Snow. 2000. "The Outcomes of Homeless Mobilization: The Influence of Organization, Disruption, Political Mediation, and Framing." American Journal of Sociology 105(4): 1063-1104.
della Porta, Donatella, and Mario Diani. 1999. Social Movements. Malden, MA: Blackwell.
Earl, Jennifer, Andrew Martin, John D. McCarthy, and Sarah A. Soule. 2004. "The Use of Newspaper Data in the Study of Collective Action." Annual Review of Sociology 30: 65-80.
Earl, Jennifer, Sarah A. Soule, and John D. McCarthy. 2003. "Protest under Fire? Explaining the Policing of Protest." American Sociological Review 68(4): 581-606.
Einwohner, Rachel L. 2003. "Opportunity, Honor, and Action in the Warsaw Ghetto Uprising of 1943." American Journal of Sociology 109(3): 650-75.
Eisinger, Peter. 1973. "The Conditions of Protest Behavior in American Cities." American Political Science Review 67(1): 11-28.
Estrada, Marco. 2005. "The ‘Armed Community in Rebellion’: Neo-Zapatismo in the Tojolab'al Cañadas, Chiapas (1988-96)." Journal of Peasant Studies 32(3-4): 528-54.
Feierabend, Ivo K., Rosalind L. Feierabend, and Betty A. Nesvold. 1973. "The Comparative Study of Revolution and Violence." Comparative Politics 5(3): 393-424.
Foweraker, Joe, and Ann L. Craig, eds. 1990. Popular Movements and Political Change in Mexico. London and Boulder, CO: Lynne Rienner.
Gamson, William A., and David S. Meyer. 1996. "Framing Political Opportunity." Pp. 275-90 in Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements, edited by Doug McAdam, John D. McCarthy, and Mayer N. Zald. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Gamson, William A., and Gadi Wolfsfeld. 1993. "Movements and Media as Interacting Systems." Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science 528: 114-125.
García de León, Antonio. 2005. "From Revolution to Transition: The Chiapas Rebellion and the Path to Democracy in Mexico." Journal of Peasant Studies 32(3-4): 508-27.
Global Exchange and CIEPAC (Centro de Investigaciones Económicas y Políticas de Acción Comunitaria). 1999. Siempre cerca, Siempre lejos: Las Fuerzas Armadas en México [Always Near, Always Far: The Armed Forces in Mexico]. Mexico City: Cencos.
Goldstone, Jack A., and Charles Tilly. 2001. "Threat (and Opportunity): Popular Action and State Response in the Dynamics of Contentious Action." Pp. 179-194 in Silence and Voice in the Study of Contentious Politics, edited by Ronald R. Aminzade, Jack A Goldstone, Doug McAdam, Elizabeth J. Perry, William H Sewell, Jr., Sidney Tarrow, and Charles Tilly. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Goodwin, Jeff, and James M. Jasper. 1999. "Caught in a Winding, Snarling Vine: The Structural Bias of Political-Process Theory." Sociological Forum 14(1): 27-54.
Harvey, Neil. 1998. The Chiapas Rebellion: The Struggle for Land and Democracy. Durham, NC: Duke University Press.
Hedecker, Donald. 2004. "An Introduction to Growth Modeling." Pp. 215-34 in The Sage Handbook of Quantitative Methodology for the Social Sciences, edited by David Kaplan. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
Hellman, Judith. A. 1999. "Real and Virtual Chiapas: Magic Realism and the Left." Pp. 161-186 in Necessary and Unnecessary Utopias: Socialist Register 2000, edited by Leo Panitch and Colin Leys. Near Woodbridge, Suffolk, U.K.: Merlin.
Higgins, Nicholas P. 2004. Understanding the Chiapas Rebellion: Modernist Visions and the Invisible Indian. Austin, TX: University of Texas Press.
Hipsher, Patricia L. 1998. "Democratic Transitions and Social-Movement Outcomes." Pp. 149-167 in From Contention to Democracy, edited by Marco G. Giugni, Doug McAdam, and Charles Tilly. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield.
Hirales, Gustavo. 1998. Camino a Acteal [The Road to Acteal]. Mexico City: Rayuela.
IEE-Chiapas (Instituto Estatal Electoral de Chiapas). 2003. Procesos electorales [Electoral Processes]. http://www.iee-chiapas.org.mx
IFE (Instituto Federal Electoral). 2003. Estadísticas de las Elecciones Federales de México [Statistics of Federal Elections in Mexico]. http://www.ife.org.mx
INEGI (Instituto Nacional de Estadística, Geografía e Informática). 2005. Sistema Municipal de Base de Datos [Municipal System Database]. http://www.inegi.gob.mx
Jenkins, J. Craig, David Jacobs, and Jon Agnone. 2003. "Political Opportunities and African-American Protest, 1948-1997." American Journal of Sociology 109(2): 277-303.
Jenkins, J. Craig, and Charles Perrow. 1977. "Insurgency of the Powerless: Farm Worker Movements (1946-1972)." American Sociological Review 42(2): 249-68.
Jenkins, J. Craig, and Kurt Schock. 1992. "Global Structures and Political Processes in the Study of Domestic Political Conflict." Annual Review of Sociology 18: 161-185.
Katzenstein, Mary, and Carol Mueller. 1987. The Women's Movements of the United States and Western Europe. Philadelphia, PA: Temple University Press.
Keck, Margaret E., and Kathryn Sikkink. 1998. Activists beyond Borders. Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press.
King, Gary. 1989. "A Seemingly Unrelated Poisson Regression Model." Sociological Methods and Research 17(4): 235-55.
Kitschelt, Herbert. 1986. "Political-Opportunity Structure and Political Protest: Antinuclear Movements in Four Democracies." British Journal of Political Science 16(1): 57-85.
Kriesi, Hanspeter, Ruud Koopmans, Jan W. Duyvendak, and Mario G. Giugni. 1992. "New Social Movements and Political Opportunities in Western Europe." European Journal of Political Research 22(2): 219-44.
Kriesi, Hanspeter, Ruud Koopmans, Jan W. Duyvendak, and Mario G. Giugni. 1995. New Social Movements in Western Europe: A Comparative Analysis. Minneapolis, MN: University of Minnesota Press.
Kurzman, Charles. 1996. "Structural Opportunity and Perceived Opportunity in Social-Movement Theory: The Iranian Revolution of 1979." American Sociological Review 61(1): 53-70.
Land, Kenneth C., Patricia L. McCall, and Daniel S. Nagin. 1996. "A Comparison of Poisson, Negative Binomial, and Semiparametric Mixed Poisson Regression Models." Sociological Methods and Research 24: 387-442.
Legorreta, María C. 1998. Religión, política y guerrillas en Las Cañadas de la Selva Lacandona [Religion, Politics, and Guerrillas in the Gorges of the Lacandon Jungle]. Mexico City: Cal y Arena.
Leyva, Xóchitl. 2005. "Indigenismo, Indianismo, and ‘Ethnic Citizenship’ in Chiapas." Journal of Peasant Studies 32(3-4): 555-83.
Leyva, Xóchitl, and Gabriel Ascencio. 1996. Lacandonia al filo del agua [Lacandonia at the Edge of the Water]. Mexico City: Fondo de Cultura Económica.
Long, Scott J., and Jeremy Freese. 2006. Regression Models for Categorical and Limited Dependent Variables Using Stata. 2nd ed. College Station, TX: Stata Corp.
Loveman, Mara. 1998. "High-Risk Collective Action: Defending Human Rights in Chile, Uruguay, and Argentina." American Journal of Sociology 104(2): 477-525.
Luke, Douglas A. 2004. Multilevel Modeling. Thousand Oaks, CA: Sage.
McAdam, Doug. 1982. Political Process and the Development of Black Insurgency, 1930-1970. Chicago, IL: University of Chicago Press.
McAdam, Doug. 1996. "Conceptual Origins, Current Problems, and Future Directions." Pp. 23-40 in Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements, edited by Doug McAdam, John D. McCarthy, and Mayer N. Zald. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
McCarthy, John D., Clark McPhail, and Jackie Smith. 1996. "Images of Protest: Dimensions of Selection Bias in Media Coverage of Washington Demonstrations, 1982 and 1991." American Sociological Review 61(3): 478-99.
McCarthy, John D., Clark McPhail, Jackie Smith, and Louis J. Crishock. 1998. "Electronic and Print Media Representations of Washington, D.C. Demonstrations, 1982 and 1991: A Demography of Description Bias." Pp. 113-130 in Acts of Dissent: New Developments in the Study of Protest, edited by Dieter Rucht, Rood Koopmans, and Friedhelm Neidhardt. Berlin: Sigma.
Mattiace, Shannan I. 1997. "Zapata Vive! The EZLN, Indigenous Politics, and the Autonomy Movement in Mexico." Journal of Latin American Anthropology 3(1): 32-71.
Melel Xojobal. 2003. Síntesis Informativa, 1997-2003 [Information Synthesis, 1997-2003].
Meyer, David S. 2004. "Protest and Political Opportunities." Annual Review of Sociology 30: 125-145.
Meyer, David S., and Debra C. Minkoff. 2004. "Conceptualizing Political Opportunity." Social Forces 82(4): 1457-92.
Minkoff, Debra. 1997. "The Sequencing of Social Movements." American Sociological Review 62(5): 779-99.
Moksnes, Heidi. 2005. "Suffering for Justice in Chiapas: Religion and the Globalization of Ethnic Identity." Journal of Peasant Studies 32(3-4): 584-607.
Noonan, Rita K. 1995. "Women against the State: Political Opportunities and Collective Action Frames in Chile's Transition to Democracy." Sociological Forum 10(1): 81-111.
Oberschall, Anthony. 1996. "Opportunities and Framing in the Eastern European Revolts of 1989." Pp. 93-121 in Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements, edited by Doug McAdam, John D. McCarthy, and Mayer N. Zald. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Oberschall, Anthony. 2000. "Social Movements and the Transition to Democracy." Democratization 7: 25-45.
O'Donnell, Guillermo, and Philippe C. Schmitter. 1986. Transitions from Authoritarian Rule: Tentative Conclusions about Uncertain Democracies. Baltimore, MD: Johns Hopkins University Press.
Pickvance, Chris. 1995. "Social Movements in the Transition from State Socialism: Convergence or Divergence?" Pp. 123-150 in Social Movements and Social Classes: The Future of Collective Action, edited by Louis Maheu. London: Sage.
Pickvance, Katy. 1997. "Social Movements in Hungary and Russia: The Case of Environmental Movements." European Sociological Review 13(1): 35-54.
Piven, Frances F., and Richard A. Cloward. 1979. Poor People's Movements. New York: Vintage.
Rasler, Karen. 1996. "Concessions, Repression, and Political Protest in the Iranian Revolution." American Sociological Review 61(1): 132-152.
Rootes, Chris. 2002. "Political-Opportunity Structures." Pp. 375-77 in International Encyclopedia of Environmental Politics, edited by John Barry and E. Gene Frankland. London and New York: Routledge.
Rootes, Chris. 2003. "Britain." Pp. 20-58 in Environmental Protest in Western Europe, edited by Christopher Rootes. Oxford: Oxford University Press.
Rucht, Dieter. 1996. "The Impact of National Contexts on Social-Movement Structures: A Cross-Movement and Cross-National Comparison." Pp. 185-204 in Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements, edited by Doug McAdam, John D. McCarthy, and Mayer N. Zald. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Rus, Jan. 1995. "Local Adaptation to Global Change: The Reordering of Native Society in Highland Chiapas, Mexico, 1974-1994." European Review of Latin American and Caribbean Studies 58: 71-89.
Schock, Kurt. 1999. "People Power and Political Opportunities: Social-Movement Mobilization and Outcomes in the Philippines and Burma." Social Problems 46(3): 355-75.
Schulz, Markus S. 1998. "Collective Action across Borders: Opportunity Structures, Networks Capacities, and Communicative Praxis in the Age of Advanced Globalization." Sociological Perspectives 41(3): 587-616.
Smith, Jackie. 1997. "Characteristics of the Modern Transnational Social Movement Sector." Pp. 42-58 in Transnational Social Movements and Global Politics, edited by Jackie Smith, Charles Chatfield, and Ron Pagnucco. Syracuse, NY: Syracuse University Press.
Stephen, Lynn. 2002. Zapata Lives! Histories and Cultural Politics in Southern Mexico. Berkeley and Los Angeles: University of California Press.
Subcomandante Marcos. 2000. Comunicado del Comité Clandestino Revolucionario Indígena-Comandancia General del Ejército Zapatista de Liberación Nacional [Communique of the CCRIEZLN]. http://www.jornada.unam.mx
Taagepera, Rein, and Matthew S. Shugart. 1989. Seats and Votes: The Effects and Determinants of Electoral Systems. New Haven, CT.: Yale University Press.
Tarrow, Sidney. 1989. Democracy and Disorder: Protest and Politics in Italy, 1965-1975. Oxford: Clarendon.
Tarrow, Sidney. 1994. Power in Movement: Social Movements, Collective Action, and Mass Politics in the Modern State. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.
Tarrow, Sidney. 2005. The New Transnational Activism. New York: Cambridge University Press.
Tilly, Charles. 1978. From Mobilization to Revolution. Reading, PA: Addison-Wesley.
Van Cott, Donna L. 2001. "Explaining Ethnic-Autonomy Regimes in Latin America." Studies in Comparative International Development 35: 30-58.
Villafuerte, Daniel. 2005. "Rural Chiapas Ten Years after the Armed Uprising of 1994: An Economic Overview." Journal of Peasant Studies 32(3-4): 461-83.
Villafuerte, Daniel, Salvador Meza, Gabriel Ascencio, María C. García, Carolina Rivera, Miguel Lisbona, and Jesús Morales. 1999. La tierra en Chiapas: Viejos problemas nuevos [Land in Chiapas: Old New Problems]. Mexico City: Plaza y Valdés.
Viqueira, Juan. P., and Mario H. Ruz, eds. 1995. Los rumbos de otra historia [The Courses of a Different History]. Mexico City: UNAM.
Zdravomyslova, Elena. 1996. "Opportunities and Framing in the Transition to Democracy: The Case of Russia." Pp. 122-137 in Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements, edited by Doug McAdam, John D. McCarthy, and Mayer N. Zald. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.