The Radicalization of Contention in Northern Ireland, 1968-1972: A Relational Perspective
This article investigates the radicalization of contention in Northern Ireland between 1968 and 1972 using a relational perspective and methodological approach. Two arenas of contention, movement-countermovement interactions and the structure of political opportunities and threats, are examined to understand the outbreak of the "Troubles" in Northern Ireland. The evolution of radical contention is explored through Quantitative Narrative Analysis (QNA), an innovative method that systematically records social actors and their interactions within an event. Relying on computer-assisted story grammars [the Subject (S) - Action (A) - Object (O) sequence and their modifiers] to parse narrative data, 6,035 semantic triplets were stored in a relational database. Sequential network models are used to analyze the database and reconstruct the nature and evolution of the interactions among the main political actors involved in the Troubles. Four distinct phases of the conflict are unveiled through network models of violence, indicating how and when the conflict radicalized, and how actors shifted their strategies of contention. Archival data are used to specify how mechanisms of radicalization, such as hostile counter-mobilization, repression, object shift and boundary activation, engendered the conflict.