Editorial Type:
Article Category: Research Article
 | 
Online Publication Date: 21 Feb 2006

After the Massacre: Mobilization in the Wake of Harsh Repression

Page Range: 107 – 126
DOI: 10.17813/maiq.9.2.559246137656n482
Save
Download PDF

What do dissidents do after a massacre? This article uses thirty-one brutal repressions to test collective-action theory in the harshest possible context. After a massacre, dissidents are outraged at the state, but also fearful of further repression. Can dissidents mobilize backlash protests in these circumstances? The report shows that there usually is sufficient communication of the massacre to enable subsequent backlash mobilization. Also, there is sufficient continuity in leadership after the massacre to coordinate backlash protest. The massacre-event leadership either remains in tact or is immediately and effectively replaced after the event. Moreover, dissident leaders use adaptive tactics to elude subsequent repression in most cases. A Bayesian updating test for mobilization shows that repression reduces backlash protests and that no repression increases backlash. This report concludes by affirming that collective-action theory works even in this highly challenging situation.

Lichbach, Mark Irving, and Ted Robert Gurr. 1981. "The Conflict Process: A Formal Model." Journal of Conflict Resolution 25:3-29.

Story, Dale. 1986. The Mexican Ruling Party: Stability and Authority. New York: Praeger.

Lopes, Carlos. 1987. Guinea-Bissau: From Liberation Struggle to Independent Statehood. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Brook-Shepard, Gordon. 1997. The Austrians: A Thousand-Year Odyssey. New York: Carroll and Graf.

Stempel, John D. 1981. Inside the Iranian Revolution. Bloomington: Indian University Press.

Skyrms, Brian. 1990. The Dynamics of Rational Deliberation. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Spittmann, Ilse and Karl Wilhelm Fricke. 1982. 17. Juni 1953: Arbeiteraufstand in der DDR. Cologne, Germany: Edition Deutschland Archiv.

Suhr, Gerald D. 1989. 1905 in St. Petersburg: Labor, Society and Revolution. Stanford, CA: Stanford University Press.

Francisco, Ronald A. 1995. "The Relationship Between Coercion and Protest." Journal of Conflict Resolution 39:263-282.

Lichbach, Mark I.1996. The Cooperator's Dilemma. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Buchanan, James M., and Gordon Tullock. 1965. The Calculus of Consent. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Brenner, Susan W. 2003. "Implicit Publication: When Should the Dissemination of Ideas and Data Be Criminalized?" Albany Law Journal of Science and Technology 13:273-429.

Lohmann, Susanne. 1994. "The Dynamics of Informational Cascaeds: The Monday Demonstrations in Leipzig, East Germany, 1989-91." World Politics 47: (October): 42-101.

Ritter, Gerhard A. and Susanne Miller. 1968. Die deutsche Revolution, 1918-1919. Frankfurt am Main: Fischer Bücherei.

McCann, Eamonn. 1992. Bloody Sunday in Derry: What Really Happened. Dingle, County Kerry, Ireland: Brandon Book Publishers.

Cockcroft, James D. 1996. Latin America: History, Politics, and U.S. Policy. Chicago: Nelson-Hall Publishers.

Churchill, Ward. 1994. "The Bloody Wake of Alcatraz: Political Repression of the American Indian Movement During the 1970s." American Indian Culture and Research Journal 18:253-300.

Mandela, Nelson. 1994. Long Walk to Freedom. Boston: Little, Brown.

Lieven, Anatol. 1994. The Baltic Revolution: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania and the Path to Independence. New Haven, CT: Yale University Press.

Lintner, Bertil. 1990. Outrage: Burma's Struggle for Democracy. London, UK: White Lotus.

Nan, Lin. 1992. The Struggle for Tiananmen: Anatomy of the 1989 Mass Movement. Westport, CT: Praeger.

Marwell, Gerald and Pamela Oliver. 1993. The Critical Mass in Collective Action: A Micro-Social Theory. New York: Cambridge University Press.

Meredith, Martin. 1998. Nelson Mandela: A Biography. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Mullan, Don. 1997. Bloody Sunday: Massacre in Northern Ireland. Niwot, CO: Roberts Rinehart Publishers.

Ming Pao News Staff. 1989. June Four: A Chronicle of the Chinese Democratic Uprising. Fayetteville: University of Arkansas Press.

Cockcroft, James D. 1996. Latin America: History, Politics, and U.S. Policy. Chicago: Nelson-Hall Publishers.

Lichbach, Mark Irving. 1987. "Deterrence of Escalation? The Puzzle of Aggregate Studies of Repression and Dissent." Journal of Conflict Resolution 31:266-297.

Clark, Donald N., ed. 1988. The Kwangju Uprising: Shadows over the Regime in South Korea. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Zum Ruhreinbruch: Tatsachen und Dokumente." 1976. In Defeat, Revolution and Occupation of the Ruhr: Birthpangs of the Weimar Republic, Part 3. Nendeln, Liechtenstein: Kraus Reprint.

Bell, J. Bowyer. 1993. The Irish Troubles: A Generation of Violence, 1967-1992. New York: St. Martin's Press.

Thompson, Ginger. 2001. "Flashback to Deadly Clash of '68 Shakes Mexico." New York Times, December 13.

Fantasia, Rick. 1988. Cultures of Solidarity: Consciousness, Action and Contemporary American Workers. Berkeley: University of California Press.

Trotsky, Leon. 1959. The Russian Revolution: The Overthrow of Tzarism and the Triumph of the Soviets. New York: Doubleday.

Zabih, Sepehr. 1988. The Iranian Military in Revolution and War. New York: Routledge.

Carlton, Eric. 1994. Massacres: An Historical Perspective. Aldershot, UK: Scolar Press.

Chen, Caroline and Jerome Woody. 2000. "Trading Off: Internet Spawns a New Way of Voting." Daily Orange: November 7, 2000. Syracuse, NY.

2600 News. 2000. "MPAA Continues Intimidation Campaign." Posted March 12, 2000 at

AP Wire. 2000. "Secretary of State Orders Vote-Trading Web Sites to Stop." November 2, 2000 BC Cycle.

Bernard, H. Russell, Peter D. Killworth, Eugene C. Johnsen, Gene A. Shelly, and Christopher McCarty. 2001. "Estimating the Ripple Effect of a Disaster." Connections 24(2): 18-22.

Böll, Heinrich. 1981. Eine deutsche Erinnerung. Munich, Germany: Deutscher Taschenbuch Verlag. Botz, Gerhard. 1983. Gewalt in der Politik: Attentate, Zuzammstöße, Putschveruche, Unruhen in Österreich, 1918-1938. Munich, Germany: Wilhelm Fink Verlag.

Baring, Arnulf. 1983. Der 17. Juni 1953. Stuttgart, Germany: Deutsche Verlags-Anstalt.

Cooper, Audrey. 2000. "Vote-Swapping Web Sites Shut down." The Associated State Press & Local Wire: October 31, 2000. Sacramento, CA.

Cunningham, David. 2003. "State versus Social Movement: FBI Counterintelligence Against the New Left." Pp. 45-77 in States, Parties, and Social Movements, edited by J. A. Goldstone. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

Davenport, Christian. 2000. Paths to State Repression: Human Rights Violations and Contentious Politics. Lanham, MD: Rowman and Littlefield Publishers.

della Porta, Donatella. 1996. "Social Movements and the State: Thoughts on the Policing of Protest." Pp. 62-92 in Comparative Perspectives on Social Movements, edited by D. McAdam, J. D. McCarthy, and M. N. Zald. Cambridge: Cambridge University Press.

DeNardo, James. 1985. Power in Numbers. Princeton: Princeton University Press.

Salisbury, Harrison E. 1989. Tiananmen Diary Thirteen Days in June. Boston: Little, Brown.

DiMaggio, Paul, Eszter Hargittai, W. Russell Neuman, and John P. Robinson. 2001. "The Social Implications of the Internet." Annual Review of Sociology 27:307-336.

Eagleton-Pierce, Matthew. 2001. "The Internet and the Seattle WTO Protests." Peace Review 13:331-337.

Earl, Jennifer, Sarah A. Soule, and John D. McCarthy. 2003. "Protests Under Fire?: Explaining Protest Policing." American Sociological Review 69:581-606.

Eliasberg, Peter J. and Mark D. Rosenbaum. 2000. "First Amended Complaint." Porter et al. v. Jones. Available at:

Fandy, Mamoun. 1999. "CyberResistance: Saudi Opposition Between Globalization and Localization." Comparative Study of Society and History 41:124-147.

Garrido, Maria and Alexander Halavais. 2003. "Mapping Networks of Support for the Zapatista Movement: Applying Social-Networks Analysis to Study Contemporary Social Movements." Pp. 165-184 in Cyberactivism: Online Activism in Theory and Practice, edited by M. McCaughey and M. D. Ayers. New York: Routledge.

Harris, Scott. 2000. "ACLU Takes Up Vote-Swapping Fight." The Industry Standard: November 2, 2000. Available at:

Hirsch, Eric L. 1990. "Sacrifice for the Cause: Group Processes, Recruitment, and Commitment in a Student Social Movement." American Sociological Review 55:243-254.

Hoover, Dean and David Kowalewski. 1992. "Dynamic Models of Dissent and Repression." Journal of Conflict Resolution 36:150-182

Internet Archive. 2001. "Election Collection 2000." Available at:

Koopmans, Ruud. 1997. "The Dynamics of Repression and Mobilization: The German Extreme Right in the 1990s." Mobilization 2:149-165.

Quattrone, George A. and Amos Tversky. 1988. "Contrasting Rational and Psychological Analyses of Political Choices." American Political Science Review 82 (September): 719-736.

Botz, Gerhard. 1987. Krisenzonen einer Demokratie: Gewalt, Streik und Konfliktunterdrückung in Österreich seit 1918. Frankfurt, Germany: Campus Verlag.

Brook-Shepard, Gordon. 1997. The Austrians: A Thousand-Year Odyssey. New York: Carroll and Graf.

Buchanan, James M., and Gordon Tullock. 1965. The Calculus of Consent. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Carlton, Eric. 1994. Massacres: An Historical Perspective. Aldershot, UK: Scolar Press.

Clark, Donald N., ed. 1988. The Kwangju Uprising: Shadows over the Regime in South Korea. Boulder, CO: Westview Press.

Oberschall, Anthony. 1980. "Loosely Structured Collective Conflict: A Theory and Application." In Research in Social Movements, Conflicts and Change, ed. Louis Kriesberg. Greenwich, CT: JAI Press.

Olson, Mancur. 1971. The Logic of Collective Action: Public Goods and the Theory of Groups. Cambridge, MA: Harvard University Press.

Payne, Robert. 1969. The Life and Death of Mahatma Gandhi. New York: Konecky and Konecky.

Petran, Tabitha. 1987. The Struggle Over Lebanon. New York: Monthly Review Press.

Przeworski, Adam and Henry Teune. 1970. The Logic of Comparative Social Inquiry. New York: John Wiley and Son.

Rasler, Karen. 1996. "Concessions, Repression and Political Protest in the Iranian Revolution." American Sociological Review 61: 132-152.

Sablinsky, Walter. 1976. The Road to Bloody Sunday: Father Gapon and the St. Petersburg Massacre of 1905. Princeton, NJ: Princeton University Press.

Sandler, Todd. 1992. Collective Action: Theory and Applications. Ann Arbor: University of Michigan Press.

Earl, Jennifer. 2003. "Tanks, Tear Gas and Taxes: Toward a Theory of Movement Repression." Sociological Theory 21:44-68.

Earl, Jennifer and Alan Schussman. 2003. "The New Site of Activism: On-Line Organizations, Movement Entrepreneurs, and the Changing Location of Social Movement Decision-Making." Research in Social Movements, Conflict, and Change 24: 155-147.

  • Download PDF